, boerse-express
Schröder: What trading is all about!
I came up with a way that will keep you out of chop 100% of the time. This is not an exaggeration.
Most of all it’s extremely simple and even a non-trader can understand the logic.
Here it is.
Do NOT trade.
Now you might say, this is nonsense, but it makes about as much sense as I have read from the posters in this thread.
I am not looking to discount what they are saying, but really, when you break it down, indicators are nothing more than a rear view mirror. Everything is always clear in a screenshot with the pretty lines drawn. It’s all so easy to grasp. But the fact is, it is NOT that simple. So here is my contribution to this thread as my first post.
IF YOU WANT TO AVOID CHOP, DO NOT TRADE!
Otherwise, use good common sense.
Don’t trade lunch, it’s not worth it if you are trying to avoid chop.
Don’t trade low volume days or pre-market, it is not worth it if you want to avoid chop.
Don’t trade before major news, wait for it to take direction, then get on.
If you want to avoid chop, then think of trading as “envelopes” of opportunity. When an envelope reveals itself, get on, get paid, get off. Then turn off your computer and leave.
If you ask 90% of the traders that post to this board, if they could find 1 trade per day to take 6 ticks out the ES, with a high chance of success (including commisions and spread) they would say yes. The problem is people try to take more than that, and are often upset about what they didn’t get. Just as it makes no sense to kick yourself for not getting long when you were 8 years old (think of how much you would have made), it makes no sense kicking yourself for what could have been.
People who want to avoid chop, are really saying, I want to be in the market all the time, except when it’s choppy, lol. Do you hear yourselves? You see those pretty trends that clearly show themselves after an MA crossover and you lick your chops saying, if I only bought here and sold here when the crossovers occurred, I would clean up. And guess what, that’s like the carnival where they have the guy with the basketball hoops behind him. Make one basket and win a prize, the problem is that you face the basket head on and you fail to see that it is really an oval and not a circle, but you give him your 5.00 for 3 balls anyway and say “man, I was right there”.
Welcome the the game my friends, you can’t get the easy MA crossover/crossunder money without going through the chop. Sure you can avoid some just by doing what I said, but beware of those who show you a few screenshots and how it all worked out. Take what they told you, backtest it, and you will see that over months, THEY ALWAYS LOSE MONEY. Yes, ALWAYS. (I’m not talking about a curve fitted version, rather random dates pulled from a hat over say 5 years.)
What they don’t tell you is what else they are looking at. It’s called instinct and experience and “knowing” something isn’t right. The rest are guides, but can absolutely not give you any insight as to what will happen next, only what MIGHT happen next. And hence…. CHOP! In other words, they draw everything they are telling you about, but oh, that one didn’t complete, so I got flat. They they wait longer, draw new lines, oh that didn’t follow through, so I got flat.
CHOP is trading. Instead of thinking about how to AVOID chop, think about how to FIND chop and play from the MOVE that COMES OUT OF IT! COPY??
That is the secret. Just like the poster who talked about the lie of the ADX and that you are best served getting on the train under a reading of 20, rather than after. I say the same for CHOP. DO NOT SEEK TO AVOID CHOP, SEEK TO SEE CHOP, then LOOK FOR THE MOVE COMING OUT! That is FAR EASIER to do than to detect it before it happens.
What you should be spending the most amount of time on is your money / risk management. You would be better served doing the following, rather than trying to predict chop.
1. Get a coin and flip it. Head get long, tails get short 2. Set a fixed amount of risk, stick to it. 3. Wager an amount that is a fixed amount of your capital that will allow you to go 20 turns. 4. Set your stops to the high/low of the prior candle. 5. Do the same on each new candle
Repeat.
You will outperform any always in MA crossover/under even with the best of indicators.
Don’t believe me? Try it. You’ll see.
To increase your odds, flip coin, if get short, then only do so if the market is red and trading under a 50MA. And the opposite going long.
Try that and focus on trying to just do 20 trades without changing a beat. That will be your biggest obsticle, not finding the trades. DO THIS FIRST BEFORE DOING ANYTHING ELSE. It is more important than chop.
See, the major problem with indicators in real time, is that you can’t see the next 10 bars, so you struggle with trying to trust them and when a move is going against you, you will question the signal and say maybe this is where the ADX toplines, or maybe the CCI is blah, or the Stochs are blah, or or or, tick trin, in out, up down, blah blah.
KEEP IT SIMPLE
You like the MA crossover-under? Fine, then just take 2 trades per day in the morning and FORGET THE REST OF THE DAY. IF YOU START TO MAKE MONEY CONSISTENTLY! then trade after 2:30pm, and BE CAREFUL AT 3PM, that is where the traders like to take out their frustration, lol.
If you catch the MA cross in the morning, ride it using the HL and HH of that move and get out when your indicators compress (this is where you would use them if you want). ADX is running in the 45 range, start to tighten your stop. Also, look at the divergence betwen your MA’s, what is the standard deviation? if they expand really far, maybe you should tighten your stop.
Do you need to make the whole move? You may disagree with me about indicators, but if you really trade with real money and do it to pay your rent/mortgage, then you know what I am saying is the truth, even if you don’t agree.
Most of all it’s extremely simple and even a non-trader can understand the logic.
Here it is.
Do NOT trade.
Now you might say, this is nonsense, but it makes about as much sense as I have read from the posters in this thread.
I am not looking to discount what they are saying, but really, when you break it down, indicators are nothing more than a rear view mirror. Everything is always clear in a screenshot with the pretty lines drawn. It’s all so easy to grasp. But the fact is, it is NOT that simple. So here is my contribution to this thread as my first post.
IF YOU WANT TO AVOID CHOP, DO NOT TRADE!
Otherwise, use good common sense.
Don’t trade lunch, it’s not worth it if you are trying to avoid chop.
Don’t trade low volume days or pre-market, it is not worth it if you want to avoid chop.
Don’t trade before major news, wait for it to take direction, then get on.
If you want to avoid chop, then think of trading as “envelopes” of opportunity. When an envelope reveals itself, get on, get paid, get off. Then turn off your computer and leave.
If you ask 90% of the traders that post to this board, if they could find 1 trade per day to take 6 ticks out the ES, with a high chance of success (including commisions and spread) they would say yes. The problem is people try to take more than that, and are often upset about what they didn’t get. Just as it makes no sense to kick yourself for not getting long when you were 8 years old (think of how much you would have made), it makes no sense kicking yourself for what could have been.
People who want to avoid chop, are really saying, I want to be in the market all the time, except when it’s choppy, lol. Do you hear yourselves? You see those pretty trends that clearly show themselves after an MA crossover and you lick your chops saying, if I only bought here and sold here when the crossovers occurred, I would clean up. And guess what, that’s like the carnival where they have the guy with the basketball hoops behind him. Make one basket and win a prize, the problem is that you face the basket head on and you fail to see that it is really an oval and not a circle, but you give him your 5.00 for 3 balls anyway and say “man, I was right there”.
Welcome the the game my friends, you can’t get the easy MA crossover/crossunder money without going through the chop. Sure you can avoid some just by doing what I said, but beware of those who show you a few screenshots and how it all worked out. Take what they told you, backtest it, and you will see that over months, THEY ALWAYS LOSE MONEY. Yes, ALWAYS. (I’m not talking about a curve fitted version, rather random dates pulled from a hat over say 5 years.)
What they don’t tell you is what else they are looking at. It’s called instinct and experience and “knowing” something isn’t right. The rest are guides, but can absolutely not give you any insight as to what will happen next, only what MIGHT happen next. And hence…. CHOP! In other words, they draw everything they are telling you about, but oh, that one didn’t complete, so I got flat. They they wait longer, draw new lines, oh that didn’t follow through, so I got flat.
CHOP is trading. Instead of thinking about how to AVOID chop, think about how to FIND chop and play from the MOVE that COMES OUT OF IT! COPY??
That is the secret. Just like the poster who talked about the lie of the ADX and that you are best served getting on the train under a reading of 20, rather than after. I say the same for CHOP. DO NOT SEEK TO AVOID CHOP, SEEK TO SEE CHOP, then LOOK FOR THE MOVE COMING OUT! That is FAR EASIER to do than to detect it before it happens.
What you should be spending the most amount of time on is your money / risk management. You would be better served doing the following, rather than trying to predict chop.
1. Get a coin and flip it. Head get long, tails get short 2. Set a fixed amount of risk, stick to it. 3. Wager an amount that is a fixed amount of your capital that will allow you to go 20 turns. 4. Set your stops to the high/low of the prior candle. 5. Do the same on each new candle
Repeat.
You will outperform any always in MA crossover/under even with the best of indicators.
Don’t believe me? Try it. You’ll see.
To increase your odds, flip coin, if get short, then only do so if the market is red and trading under a 50MA. And the opposite going long.
Try that and focus on trying to just do 20 trades without changing a beat. That will be your biggest obsticle, not finding the trades. DO THIS FIRST BEFORE DOING ANYTHING ELSE. It is more important than chop.
See, the major problem with indicators in real time, is that you can’t see the next 10 bars, so you struggle with trying to trust them and when a move is going against you, you will question the signal and say maybe this is where the ADX toplines, or maybe the CCI is blah, or the Stochs are blah, or or or, tick trin, in out, up down, blah blah.
KEEP IT SIMPLE
You like the MA crossover-under? Fine, then just take 2 trades per day in the morning and FORGET THE REST OF THE DAY. IF YOU START TO MAKE MONEY CONSISTENTLY! then trade after 2:30pm, and BE CAREFUL AT 3PM, that is where the traders like to take out their frustration, lol.
If you catch the MA cross in the morning, ride it using the HL and HH of that move and get out when your indicators compress (this is where you would use them if you want). ADX is running in the 45 range, start to tighten your stop. Also, look at the divergence betwen your MA’s, what is the standard deviation? if they expand really far, maybe you should tighten your stop.
Do you need to make the whole move? You may disagree with me about indicators, but if you really trade with real money and do it to pay your rent/mortgage, then you know what I am saying is the truth, even if you don’t agree.