Fidelity Marktkommentar: China und die Weltmärkte

Der Fidelity Marktkommentar richtet sich an ausgewählte Journalisten
und liefert Meinungen von Fidelity Fondsmanagern zu
Marktentwicklungen. Die hier zusammengestellten Zitate der
Fondsmanager dürfen bei der Erstellung von Beiträgen frei verwendet
werden, sofern ihr Sinn nicht verfälscht wird. Für Rückfragen steht
die Unternehmenskommunikation von Fidelity (siehe unten) gern zur
Verfügung.

Kronberg im Taunus, 28. Februar 2007


Aktuelle Markteinschätzung von Trevor Greetham, Fondsmanager des
Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund:

"Markets that have risen a long way without a pause are at risk of
sharp short-term corrections as we are seeing now. This can be
healthy as unrealistic expectations are brought down to earth. Often
there is no clear trigger but a consensus usually forms around a
particular cause. This time it's a tightening of stock market
regulation in China, aimed at dampening speculation, and a quarter
point rise in Japanese interest rates, apparently causing some people
who had borrowed yen to sell shares so they can pay down the debt.
Neither event poses the sort of threat to Wall Street that should
result in a 500 point daily drop in the Dow Jones index so these
explanations don't make a lot of sense."

"Long term investors would do best to step back and view yesterday's
correction in a longer term, economic cycle context. The world
economy has enjoyed a strong upswing since the dark days of 2001-3,
to the benefit of stocks, particularly those linked to commodity
prices or the emerging markets. The macro outlook for 2007 is more
finely balanced. Global growth indicators currently suggest a
slowdown in line with long run trend growth.
Inflation indicators point to a new disinflationary trend on the back
of a lower oil price. This ought to be a fairly good backdrop for
financial assets, but perhaps not as good a backdrop for stocks as we
have become used to."

"The main risks to stocks in 2007 come from two sources. First, there
are signs that US housing market weakness is leading to a tightening
of credit standards, particularly for so-called sub-prime borrowers.
If credit isn't available then the level of interest rates becomes
academic and the Federal Reserve loses some of its power to control
events. US consumer spending could disappoint and, bearing in mind
that America has never had such a big trade deficit, there would be
substantial knock on effects felt in the rest of the world, China
included. In this scenario, investors would do well do have some
exposure to bonds. Bonds generally do well when global growth slows.
Secondly, the political situation in the Middle East remains
volatile. A sharp run up in oil prices could reignite inflation
concerns and lead to further rate hikes in the UK and elsewhere. This
would be especially troublesome for stocks if the world economy and
corporate profits growth were slowing at the same time. In this
scenario, some exposure to commodities would be of benefit. At the
moment I put greatest weight on the global slowdown scenario. I am
neutral on stocks, preferring to overweight bonds and global property
at the expense of commodities and cash in our new Multi Asset
Strategic Fund."

"Whatever the outcome, recent events pose a stark reminder that
diversification has never been more important. In a relatively low
inflation world, stocks are unlikely to keep delivering the sort of
returns we've seen in recent years. The correlations between stocks,
bonds and commodities are low. Long-term investors looking for
smoother returns and a spread of risk should diversify their exposure
across a range of asset classes, rather than trying to dip in and out
as equity markets move."

Weitere Informationen zum Hintergrund:

Chinese stocks that triggered a global sell-off yesterday made their
way into positive territory today. However, the ripple that started
in Asia kept most the region, including Japan, in negative territory
as investors continued to reassess the risks of investing in global
equity markets following a prolonged bull market.

The below table provides performance of the major markets*:


Net % 1
Regions Countries Index Close Change day % YTD Date
Japan Topix 1752.74 -58.59 -3.23 4.26 02/28/2007
Japan Nikkei 225 17604.12 -515.8 -2.85 2.2 02/28/2007
Hong Kong Hang Seng 19651.51 -496.36 -2.46 -1.57 02/28/2007
Hang Seng
Hong Kong H Share 11207.53 -304.52 -2.65 -13.36 02/28/2007
Shanghai
China SE 2881.07 109.28 3.94 7.68 02/28/2007
Shenzhen
China SE 736.81 27 3.8 33.82 02/28/2007
Taiwan
Taiwan TAIEX 7901.96 Closed Closed 1 02/27/2007
ASIA Korea KOSPI 1417.34 -37.26 -2.56 -1.19 02/28/2007
Australia S&P/ASX200 5832.5 -161.3 -2.69 2.87 02/28/2007
SENSEX 30
India ** 13073.41 -405.42 -3.01 -5.18 02/28/2007
Straits
Singapore Times ** 3111.94 -120.08 -3.72 4.22 02/28/2007
Kuala
Lumpur
Malaysia Comp 1190.94 -46.14 -3.73 8.64 02/28/2007
Thailand SET ** 671.90 -12.0 -1.76 -1.17 02/28/2007
Jakarta
Indonesia Comp ** 1740.97 -23.04 -1.31 -3.58 02/28/2007

US S&P 500 1399.04 -50.33 -3.47 -1.36 02/27/2007
US Dow Jones
US Ind Avg 12216.24 -416.02 -3.29 -1.98 02/27/2007
US NASDAQ 2407.26 -96.66 -3.86 -0.31 02/27/2007

UK FTSE 100 6286.1 -148.6 -2.31 1.05 02/27/2007
EU Germany DAX 6819.65 -207.94 -2.96 3.38 02/27/2007
France CAC 40 5588.39 -174.15 -3.02 0.84 02/27/2007


*Source: Bloomberg 28/02/07 **8pm EST, price appreciation.



China and Hong Kong

Mainland Chinese stock markets recovered slightly today, after
falling sharply yesterday due to concerns that the government may
introduce additional macro-economic tightening measures to cool
speculative activity.

After falling 8.8% yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index, which
tracks shares listed on the bigger of China's two stock markets, rose
by 3.9%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index gained 3.8%.

Shares of Shanghai-listed China Life Insurance rose as much as 2.1%,
bolstered by expectations of a strong trading debut for fellow
mainland insurance group Ping An Insurance on Thursday. Meanwhile,
shares of CITIC Securities retreated as much as 2.8% on worries the
brokerage firm could see declining revenues if markets continue to
decline.

Investors remain wary that more measures, both to address fears of a
bubble in the stock market and the robust economy, may emerge from
the National People's Congress, which convenes on March 5. However,
some market participants said Tuesday's sell-off had done little to
damage the long-term outlook for China's economic growth or the
prospects for corporate earnings.

In Hong Kong, the market was still feeling the effects of falls
yesterday in mainland China and the US. The Hang Seng retreated
2.5%. Chinese H-shares were 2.7% weaker. Market bellwether China
Mobile was down 3.3%, while HSBC Holdings fell 1.2%.

Japan

The broad market TOPIX fell by 3.2%, but managed to gain 1.8% over
the month of February and is still up 4.3% so far this year,
outperforming the S&P 500, which is down 1.4%. The Nikkei 225
weakened 2.9% today.

Today's decline was led by the securities, shipping, construction,
oil & coal, transport equipments, real estate and machinery sectors,
many of which were among the best performers over the last three
months.

Shares of Sony fell 5.8%, while Nomura Holdings declined 5.9%. In
Tokyo currency trading, the yen weakened after touching a
two-and-a-half month high against the US dollar in New York. The
dollar was quoted at 118.23 yen, compared to 117.89 yen in New York
late Tuesday and 119.93 yen late in Tokyo during the previous
session. During the New York session, the yen reached an intraday
high of 117.46 to the dollar, its strongest level since December 15.

Many market commentators attribute Japan's market declines to
concerns about monetary tightening in emerging markets, particularly
in China and in India, as well as concerns about slowing US economy.
While those concerns cannot be ignored, the sector rotation in the
Japanese market suggests that today's decline in Japan is in part a
technical correction to stretched valuations, instead of a sell-off
stemming from any particular theme. Therefore, this may be an
inevitable but healthy process in order to sustain the market rally
in the long run.

Elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region

Indian markets fell on the back of Chinese and US market weakness.
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, was down by
2.6%.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2.7%, led lower by shares of BHP
Billiton, which fell 5.1%.

Markets in Korea, Thailand and Indonesia fell in excess of 2%, while
Malaysia and Singapore were more adversely affected.

Markets in Taiwan were closed for a public holiday.



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